Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 45.289290 49.713078 54.680214 60.736474 68.014841 76.607363 87.720114
2025-06-22 38.775831 44.376635 51.152688 60.173394 72.238938 88.443862 113.133113
2025-06-29 34.658766 40.627781 48.174540 58.787164 74.030920 96.506809 135.601498
2025-07-06 31.388882 37.386651 45.199155 56.615658 73.894199 101.291211 154.645775
2025-07-13 30.328562 36.813110 45.567864 58.986409 80.720058 118.819133 207.029522
2025-07-20 29.190069 35.973668 45.403950 60.451211 86.326771 136.208334 275.379558
2025-07-27 28.210536 35.234512 45.256885 61.850184 92.066781 156.272672 379.778375
2025-08-03 26.968417 34.005871 44.237970 61.646343 94.767850 170.955695 498.397365
2025-08-10 25.634722 32.542698 42.721849 60.385360 95.107280 180.092436 622.160728
2025-08-17 24.384043 31.119610 41.150417 58.834267 94.538157 186.681155 764.474692
2025-08-24 23.344373 29.947381 39.883504 57.677813 94.589632 195.305380 989.026791
2025-08-31 22.447337 28.938375 38.803256 56.739623 94.948170 205.311656 1357.925294
2025-09-07 22.172960 28.886705 39.310428 58.903732 103.230036 250.227333 4895.433960
2025-09-14 21.434832 28.085235 38.532346 58.538058 105.399226 274.845574 40815.696640
2025-09-21 20.590244 27.073546 37.332093 57.205901 104.800508 287.175645 NaN
2025-09-28 19.681636 25.921906 35.829855 55.131064 101.851564 286.127524 NaN
2025-10-05 19.568002 26.010870 36.438116 57.396597 111.374248 366.379438 NaN
2025-10-12 19.314780 25.861219 36.618269 58.794980 118.978954 456.986187 NaN
2025-10-19 19.063295 25.699033 36.760699 60.129515 126.956065 584.299905 NaN
2025-10-26 18.611857 25.188795 36.243815 59.935123 129.856703 677.307257 NaN
2025-11-02 18.051591 24.477625 35.323340 58.732137 128.932380 720.459847 NaN
2025-11-09 17.485486 23.737947 34.317247 57.251293 126.713698 740.616332 NaN
2025-11-16 16.998954 23.114845 33.498907 56.146422 125.696186 784.516781 NaN